Latest Polling
July 2026
Wild Montana Action Fund / GSG
July 27-30, 2026 | n500 likely Montana general election voters
Wild Montana Action Fund commissioned a poll of Montana’s U.S. Senate race from Global Strategy Group, which revealed Seth Bodnar remains the only candidate who could defeat Kurt Alme in a head-to-head race while Bankhead’s vote share continues to slip.
In a four-way race, Alme leads with just 36% of the vote, followed by Bodnar with 26%, Alani Bankhead with 18%, and Libertarian Kyle Austin taking 4%.
When the race consolidates to a three-way, Bodnar surpasses Alme with 40% of the vote, followed by 38% for Alme and 9% for Austin.
Bankhead continues to trail Alme by 6 points, consistent with the range she has fallen short of Alme by in recent polling.
Nearly three in four Democrats believe it is more important to support the candidate most likely to defeat Alme, even if he is an independent. Democratic voters say by a wide margin (74%) that it is more important to support the candidate most likely to defeat Alme, rather than more important to support the candidate who is the Democratic Party’s nominee (24%).
A majority of Democrats believe that Bankhead should withdraw from the race. Over half (57%) of Democratic voters say that Bankhead should withdraw to clear the field for Bodnar to defeat Alme. Just 36% say that she should remain in the race as the nominee. Even Democratic voters who are favorable to Bankhead agree that she should withdraw (50% say she should withdraw).
July 2026
Tavern Research
In a head-to-head matchup, Bodnar is statistically tied with Alme at 49% to 51%
In a head-to-head matchup, Bankhead falls short of Alme by 18 points, 6 points worse than one month ago
Bodnar continues to surpass Bankhead in a three-way race with Kurt Alme (49% Alme / 27% Bodnar / 24% Bankhead)
June 2026
Hart Research
In a head-to-head matchup, Bodnar matches Alme at 50% support each.
In a four-way race, Alme leads with 47% of the vote followed by Bodnar with 25% and and Bankhead with 22%.
In the initial two-way trial heat between Bodnar and Alme, the race is essentially tied: 47% Alme, 45% Bodnar, within the margin of error.
In a head-to-head matchup, Bankhead trails Alme by 6 points.
July 2026
GQR
In a four-way race, Alme leads with just 41% of the vote, followed by Bodnar with 27%, Alani Bankhead with 22%,.
When the race consolidates to a three-way, Bodnar surpasses Alme, 44% to 40%.
Bankhead continues to trail Alme by 8 points, consistent with the range she has fallen short of Alme by in recent polling.
Bodnar continues to gain favorability as voters learn more about him, while Bankhead’s favorability has stalled.
May 2026
MTFP-Eagleton
A statewide poll conducted by Montana Free Press–Eagleton found that while name ID was low for all candidates,
Bodnar posted stronger favorability than Alme statewide
Among Democrats, 44% viewed Bodnar favorably
More respondents identified as independents than Republicans or Democrats
May 2026
MT Opinion Polls
In May, Bodnar held a narrow lead over Alme in a two-way race, with Bodnar at 39% and Alme at 36%, with 25% undecided
As name recognition for both has increased, the race has stayed statistically tied
June 2026
Tavern Research
In a head-to-head matchup, Bodnar matches Alme at 50% support each
In a head-to-head matchup, Bankhead falls short of Alme by 12 points (44% to 56%)
Bankhead’s 44% against Alme is consistent with voters who prefer a generic Democrat, showing she cannot over perform the Democratic baseline despite millions spent supporting her in the primary